Why John McCain was screwed before he even got out of bed this morning

The presidential race between O-Bom and Mac was all but decided before either announced his candidacy. And it has little to do with the economy or the war on terror.

It’s no secret that I’m a fan of Senator John McCain and would like to see the election swing his way, but if history is any indication (and she usually is) I won’t be breaking out the cigars and champagne on Wednesday. The incumbent party has little chance of retaining control over the White House. President George W. Bush’s term has seen some of the lowest approval ratings since the 1940s, and low approval ratings often forecast a shift in political power.

Harry Truman frittered away political capital like it grew on trees and in 1952, Dwight Eisenhower dominated the electorate over democratic candidate Adlai Stevenson. (Truman began his term following FDR’s death with approval ratings in the 80s; by 1951 his ratings were at 22 points, according to Wall Street Journal reports).

Jimmy Carter’s approval ratings were just starting to recover from the disastrous Iranian hostage crisis in 1979 when the economy took a downturn, sliding his approval ratings back into the 30s. Ronald Regan’s victory in 1980 was nothing short of a landslide.

Bush’s approval ratings are currently hovering in the 30s, just a few points lower than his father’s were when Bill Clinton unseated him during the 1992 election. At the time, unemployment and poverty had climbed to their highest in nearly ten years.

I’m not suggesting that approval ratings alone will make or break an election. Each of these examples had other contributing factors. Eisenhower’s victory came in the midst of the Cold War, and Bush’s 1990 tax hike left room for Clinton to secure a victory. Regardless of the issues, when the president’s approval ratings sink below 50 percent the party is in trouble. As a candidate, even if you do everything right (which no candidate has in this, or probably any, election) you’ll still face an uphill battle through a blizzard.

Of course Republicans should not be deterred from voting tomorrow, our votes still count. We also need to be realistic about our expectations for the election’s outcome: a McCain victory is unlikely.

So for now, tuck those Cubans back in their box and leave your Tattinger on ice. The political climate could look much more favorable for conservatives once Obama’s had four years in the White House.