Oscar Predictions

With the presidential election well in the past and our economy still in the pits, I’ve lately been feeling politically uninspired.

Since this blog was originally intended to be as much about Hollywood gossip as politics, I present my completely non-expert predictions for the 2008 Academy Awards. Some may say I’m unqualified to forecast Oscar wins, having no professional experience in the film business or even in writing about film, but I do watch a lot of movies and I’m good at guessing. I’m also good at being right.

Click here for a full list of nominees.

Best Picture: "Milk"
You may think "Slumdog Millionaire" has this one in the bag after its Golden Globe victory, but the Academy might surprise you. In the past, the Golden Globes were often a good predictor for Oscar wins (think "The English Patient", "Titanic"), but over the past several years that trend has faded. When "The Aviator" won the Golden Globe, "Million Dollar Baby" won the Oscar; when the Golden Globes honored "Brokeback Mountain", the Academy chose "Crash"; last year "Atonement" grabbed the Golden Globe but "No Country for Old Men" reigned victorious at the Oscars.

Best Actress: Kate Winslet for "The Reader"
This was a powerhouse year for actresses and the caliber of nominees is impressive, but the buzz surrounding Winslet’s haunting performance seals her win in this category.

Best Actor: Sean Penn for "Milk"
It could be argued that the honor really should go to Mickey Rourke for “The Wrestler”, but the Academy loves Penn and his performance as Harvey Milk is subtly brilliant.

Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz for "Vicky Christina Barcelona"
Woody Allen movies have a history of winning awards for supporting roles.

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger for "The Dark Knight"
No one else has a chance, or deserves it more. Ledger's performance is thrilling.

Best Director: Danny Boyle for "Slumdog Millionaire"

Best Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black for "Milk"

Best Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy for "Slumdog Millionaire"
If you read how bad the original book is, you'd appreciate the genius it took to masterfully recreate this story for film.

Best Foreign Language Film: "Waltz With Bashir"
To be honest, I haven’t seen any of the films nominated in this category. I usually wait until after the Oscars and see the one that wins (reading all those subtitles can be exhausting). But I’m still comfortable predicting this animated gem will win, not just because it won at the Globes. The film is about the 1982 Lebanon War and Hollywood loves foreign movies with messages they can distort and relate indirectly to American politics.

Best Animated Film: "WALL-E"
Almost unfair to anyone else who made an animated feature last year.

Best Art Direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
The production design team on this film must have had their hands full but the result is striking.

Best Cinematography: Claudio Miranda for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Best Film Editing: I would love to see this award to go Daniel P. Hanley and Mike Hill for “Frost/Nixon” but Chris Dickens is more likely to win for “Slumdog Millionaire”.

Best Costume Design: Albert Wolsky for “Revolutionary Road”

Best Original Song: Peter Gabriel’s “Down to Earth” actually has the upper hand here because the two “Slumdog Millionaire” songs may cannibalize each others' votes.

Best Original Score: Thomas Newman for "WALL-E"
Newman's "Finding Nemo" score was true genius and I'm unfairly biased toward his work. But I still think "WALL-E" is the most likely bet here.

Best Makeup: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Best Sound Editing: "WALL-E"
Most of what you hear in the film is sound effects, and Ben Burtt created each squeak and whistle with poetic artistry. The academy usually gives sound awards to action films, but "WALL-E" earned its stripes on this one.

Best Sound Mixing: "WALL-E" again.
It's possible for films to win for both sound mixing and editing ("The Bourne Ultimatum" won both last year, as did "King Kong" in 2006). If "WALL-E" takes home only one of the two it will be for sound editing, and "The Dark Knight" will win in this category.

Best Visual Effects: “Iron Man”

I was going to select my predictions in the short film categories by throwing into a hat strips of paper with the film titles, but I’ll spare you the process. Don’t forget to make your own predictions and find out who wins on Feb. 22.